Today Palestine is making its bid for statehood at the UN. In the coming weeks (or less, or more, I honestly don't know how long this will take) Palestine will certainly lose this bid. Today, this bid is having an effect on my ability to leave my house.
Normally, protests going on outside my house that prevent me from going outside (not really, but CIEE keeps texting us telling us to avoid certain areas with demonstrations) would be annoying. But this really isn't. This is really cool. If I were at home, I would be sitting in bed right now, laptop in my lap, reading articles about the bid. I'd go to Beth's Arab/Israeli conflict class (which I would definitely have taken if I were at Beloit this semester) and talk about it there, and that would be that. Not so here in Jordan. Instead, I'm sitting in bed right now, typing with my laptop in my lap, listening to the protests of Jordanians outside my window. I may be homesick, I may be kinda lonely here, but I love that I get to be here for this.
A little context for those of you who don't know what I'm talking about: Palestine is attempting to get statehood recognition from the United Nations. It seems as though Palestine has been long fed up with attempts at negotiations with Israel and is trying to go around that issue by going through the UN instead, which isn't going well for them.The physical borders that Palestine wants recognition for (and has been trying to get back from Israel for years through failed negotiations) include the territory that Israel took in 1967 (the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem). This is, as most of you will have guessed, not going to happen.
President Obama said yesterday (I think yesterday, it might have been the day before, time zones are confusing) that he was opposed to statehood recognition for Palestine and openly said that the U.S. would veto Palestine's bid. Palestinians are not happy about this, nor are Jordanians. Most Jordanians that I've talked to think that Obama is just trying to get votes, and in order to do that, he has to put forward a pro-Israel stance. So Jordanians have been protesting in the streets for the last few days, very peacefully and mostly pretty quietly (there was a protest near my neighborhood the other day that was supposed to have over a thousand attendees, but the turn out was more like a couple hundred). Over half of the population of Jordan is either of Palestinian descent, or is actually from Palestine (like my host mom, who only managed to get out of Bethlehem in 1967 because her mom had a job in Amman), so the Palestinian support here is overwhelming. Some Jordanians that I've talked to only begrudgingly recognize Israel as a state.
However, Jordanians are fully aware that this bid isn't going to go through. Palestinians are fully aware of this. So why are they going through with it? I think it's because at this point it's kind of the only thing they can do. The Arab/Israeli conflict has been going on since Israel's birth in 1948. Attempts at peace negotiations have failed repeatedly. The tricky thing is that Israel actually has a lot to lose from peace negotiations, and Palestine has a lot to gain. Israel has significant military power over Palestine, it has more territory and it barely suffers the consequences for encroaching on territory that doesn't belong to them. Palestine wants Israel to cut out its settlement building and put reverting the borders back to what they were before 1967 on the table before it even agrees to negotiate. Israel is having none of that, so peace negotiations have been stalled for some time now.
So what's my personal opinion on all of this? Tough to say, since I'm learning this on the fly by talking to heavily biased Jordanians. I would have benefited from taking Beth's class this semester, since Israel/Palestine is not my general area of interest. However, from what I do know, I think that the Palestinian bid for statehood isn't a good idea, even ignoring the fact that we all know that the U.S. is going to veto it (side note: I really, really hate the Security Council and veto power). Even if Palestine was recognized as a state by the UN, it doesn't have that much to gain from this. Israel would still have authority over Palestinian territory, and attacks between the two would certainly continue. But since Israel has so much to lose, and Palestine has so much to gain, peace negotiations just aren't going anywhere, and I kind of feel like at least Palestine is doing something.
If anyone has any questions, please leave them in comments or email me. However, I'm not currently taking a class on the Arab/Israeli conflict and I never have before, so all of my knowledge on the subject is self-taught. So I also welcome any corrections or challenges to what I've said here, because it's quite possible that I've got some facts mixed up, or that I've misunderstood something (Eric, I'm looking at you. Seriously, fill in the gaps in my education, they're pretty big). It's a very, very complicated topic.
In other news, I'm going to Umm Qais tomorrow, and I will return with pictures soon!
Hey Meg,
ReplyDeleteAbbas has three options right now, although to be honest I haven't been able to follow that closely and he might have already picked one...
Door #1 (Safest Bet):
He could ask the General Assembly to give Palestine Non-Member Observer State status (the Vatican has it now, and Switzerland had it for more than fifty years). It's similar to the difference between being a member of congress versus being a delegate here - you can make statements in debates, sponsor resolutions, circulate documents, etc. but can't participate in final votes. It's also a modest but important gain for their long-term statehood ambitions. There is overwhelming support for this, and Security Council veto power becomes irrelevant. Abbas would become the only person for Palestinians to blame for not trying to go further, so it's the riskiest choice for him domestically.
Door #2 (Risky Bet):
He could ask the General Assembly to recognize Palestine as a sovereign state. If it won the vote, it would be a tremendous symbolic victory but the Security Council still has to give its approval. This backs the US into a corner because using our veto power at a critical time in the Arab world, especially after there has been an affirmative vote, would be very embarassing and potentially dangerous. Because of that, it's likely that the US will work hard to convince states to vote nay from the outset. But with China and Russia voting yes, this will be difficult. Africa will be the battleground, since they have over one quarter of UN votes. China may be more influential there but I doubt they've raised the issue.
Door #3 (Riskiest Bet):
Abbas could go straight to the Security Council and force the US to use its veto. It would be easier to explain American rationale before a General Assembly vote because the administration can say that it's not a bad idea long-term, but just premature in the peace process at this time. It would hurt US-Arab relations but is a safe domestic bet for Obama (and Palestinians already expect it). For Abbas, he looks much stronger but he might have issues keeping Hamas in check if they use it as a rallying opportunity.
We'll see what happens. But at any rate, I'd prefer if your post only used my first name or initials if that's okay with you.
Have fun in Amman,
Eric
Well put, Meg, and very clear. I will have Granddad read it and post any comments he may have. I will make sure he reads Eric's comments too.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.democracynow.org/2011/9/23/debate_does_un_statehood_bid_advance
ReplyDeleteYour very intersting reports from Amman are like those we read and see from on the scene journalists reporting daily from the Middle East. I have had some experience in business working with Palestinians and always found them to be intelligent and pleasant people. I hope they will gain influence within the United Nations who can apply balanced pressure upon both Palestinians and Israelis to reach some kind of a settlement. American influence is not exactly balanced.
ReplyDeleteYour uncle Mark and I will be touring the Civil War battlefields in early October.
Take good care of yourself and thank you for your messages.
Whoops, sorry Eric. Thanks for the link; it explains nicely the problems with the bid when it comes to Palestinians outside of Palestine (ie; a lot of Jordanians, which is interesting). Also, looks like Abbas picked Door #3, and with a deadline to boot...
ReplyDeleteThanks Nana and Grandad, good to know you're reading this!
Petra, the rose Red city, this is a popular city of Petra, in South of Jordan. This city is recognized as a UESCO world heritage site
ReplyDeletethanks
petra tour